民調準確,須專業解讀. Polls are accurate but need professional interpretation.

從選舉結果看,民調還是準確的,但必須專業解讀。蔡英文這次得票率56.12%,比2012年多了10.5%,每個縣巿在平均數上下,沒有例外,成長最高的是台北市,也才11.4%。2008年那一次,民進黨得票比2004年掉了8.5%,當時高雄市掉了最少,也是7.5%,最高和最低相差不超過2%,這也是民調抽樣的科學基礎。

Looking at the election results, election opinion polls [in Taiwan] have been fairly accurate but need to be professionally interpreted. Tsai Ing-wen won 56.12% of the votes this time, representing an 10.5% increase from 2012. There are no exceptions in the average from every county and city. The highest increase happened in Taipei City but it’s not far from 10.5% (11.4%,). In 2008, the DPP lost 8.5% of the votes compared to 2004. Kaohsiung city saw the least loss but it was still 7.5%, close to 8.5%. The largest and the smallest differences between the national increase/decrease and each local increase/decrease have all been within +2%.

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About Frank Hsieh

Former Premier, Former Kaohsiung Mayor 前行政院長、前高雄市長
本篇發表於 Elections 大選, Facebook文章(中文), Politics - domestic 國內政治, Tweets (English)。將永久鏈結加入書籤。

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