宋楚瑜要創造被「保」而不是被「棄」的氣勢. James Soong needs momentum of ‘keeper’, not one to be abandoned.

颱風來了。大家出門小心。翻閱2012年總統投票前一個月的民調,發現泛藍選票最後都會集中,形成棄保效應,較弱的結果更弱,當時宋楚瑜的民調都在10%上下,但投出來卻只有2.7%,。這次他要創造被「保」而不是被「棄」的氣勢,才能捲起颱風般的威力。不過,當時馬英九的滿意度和不滿意度相當,都還有四十多,情勢也真的變很多!

Typhoon is coming. Please watch out [for extreme conditions] when you go out.

Looking at the polling data the month before the 2012 presidential election, ‘pan-blue’ (pro-KMT) supporters gathered at the end and voted strategically, pouring their votes to the stronger candidate in their camp. The weaker one became weaker. At that time, James Soong (People First Party) always polled around 10% but what he actually won was only 2.7%. This time, to create a force like a typhoon, Soong has to create the momentum of the ‘keeper’ rather than the one to be ‘abandoned’. However, Ma Ying-jeou’s ratings of satisfaction and dissatisfaction [around the 2012 election] were about the same, roughly 40%. The situation has actually changed a lot since.

Tweets:

‘Typhoon is coming to Taiwan. Please watch out for extreme conditions when you go out.’

‘Soong polled 10% but won 2.7% in 2012 due to tactical voting. But Ma’s (dis)sat were 40% then. It’s v different now.’

“This time, to create force like typhoon, Soong needs the momentum of the ‘keeper’ rather than one to be ‘abandoned’."

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About Frank Hsieh

Former Premier, Former Kaohsiung Mayor 前行政院長、前高雄市長
本篇發表於 Commentary 時事評論, Facebook文章(中文), Politics - domestic 國內政治, Tweets (English)。將永久鏈結加入書籤。

One Response to 宋楚瑜要創造被「保」而不是被「棄」的氣勢. James Soong needs momentum of ‘keeper’, not one to be abandoned.

  1. 陳建佑 說道:

    宋拉的動也只有王系的,還有花蓮縣長傅先生的,以及他自己部分的宋家軍,其他的藍營好像都沒影響跟動靜,就目前看來是這樣@@
    國民黨現在分成三種藍:挺馬藍、挺王藍、就是藍。
    宋現在拉的動的藍,也只有挺王藍,就讓我們繼續看下去!

    喜歡

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