Typhoon is coming. Please watch out [for extreme conditions] when you go out.
Looking at the polling data the month before the 2012 presidential election, ‘pan-blue’ (pro-KMT) supporters gathered at the end and voted strategically, pouring their votes to the stronger candidate in their camp. The weaker one became weaker. At that time, James Soong (People First Party) always polled around 10% but what he actually won was only 2.7%. This time, to create a force like a typhoon, Soong has to create the momentum of the ‘keeper’ rather than the one to be ‘abandoned’. However, Ma Ying-jeou’s ratings of satisfaction and dissatisfaction [around the 2012 election] were about the same, roughly 40%. The situation has actually changed a lot since.
‘Typhoon is coming to Taiwan. Please watch out for extreme conditions when you go out.’
‘Soong polled 10% but won 2.7% in 2012 due to tactical voting. But Ma’s (dis)sat were 40% then. It’s v different now.’
“This time, to create force like typhoon, Soong needs the momentum of the ‘keeper’ rather than one to be ‘abandoned’."